Warum die 63 % HODL-Welle von Bitcoin nicht das Mega-Bullen-Signal ist, für das alle denken
Story summary
Der Einjahresanteil stieg innerhalb eines Monats um 0,98 Prozentpunkte, während sich angrenzende Altersgruppen um den Schwellenwert bewegten. Der Beitrag „Warum die 63-prozentige HODL-Welle von Bitcoin nicht das Mega-Bullensignal ist, von dem alle denken, dass es das ist“, erschien zuerst auf CryptoSlate.
📌 Key Highlights & Takeaways
- Der Einjahresanteil stieg innerhalb eines Monats um 0,98 Prozentpunkte, während sich angrenzende Altersgruppen um den Schwellenwert bewegten.
- Der Beitrag „Warum die 63-prozentige HODL-Welle von Bitcoin nicht das Mega-Bullensignal ist, von dem alle denken, dass es das ist“, erschien zuerst auf CryptoSlate.
Bitcoin ’s share of supply last moved at least one year ago reached 63.3% on Sept. 18, up 0.98 percentage points from 62.32% on Aug. 18, according to Maketo’s HODL-wave data.
HODL waves group Bitcoin’s unspent transaction outputs into age bands based on their last on-chain movement. The rising one-year share therefore shows that more supply now sits in older bands. Current-month buying and deliberate withdrawal from the market require separate evidence.
The underlying bands point to a specific mechanism. Coins that last moved roughly a year ago can enter the one-to-two-year bracket simply by remaining still long enough to cross the boundary.
The one-to-two-year band increased to 14.57% of supply from 13.52% between Aug. 18 and Sept. 18, a gain of 1.05 percentage points. That was the largest positive change among the cohorts already older than one year.
Over the same period, the six-to-twelve-month band fell to 17.53% from 19.10%. Glassnode’s Sept. 18 snapshot showed the same latest values for both bands.
The paired moves are consistent with coins crossing the one-year boundary. Each band is a net share after coins age into it, age out of it or move on-chain and reset to the youngest cohort, leaving the identity and gross flow of the underlying units unresolved.
Recent movement also eased. Coins last moved within one month accounted for 7.03% of supply on Sept. 18, down 0.27 percentage points from 7.30% a month earlier.
Under Glassnode’s methodology , an unmoved output advances into older bands as it crosses each age threshold. Movement resets the clock.
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Source: CryptoSlate.
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